Atlantic Article Analysis- Link to Article
In this ungodly long article, Gellman explains all of the different scenarios that could result from a contested election. Many of these terrifying outcomes become more and more realistic as the president continues to condemn mail-in voting. He will also not guarantee a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election. A global pandemic, an unstable postal service, a reckless incumbent, racial turmoil, and a surge in voter suppression is taking a toll on the American electoral system. Almost anything is possible, which is what makes it so uncertain. As we saw in 2016, the polls don't make any difference if people don't vote or are unable to. The increase in mail-in ballots could keep the election contested for days or weeks. The FBI has warned that foreign governments could take advantage of this, undermining American democracy. Frankly, Donald Trump’s cult-like following would make it impossible for his supporters to accept his loss as legitimate. At this point, even the most catastrophic outcome doesn’t seem that far fetched. The amount of pain, uncertainty, and apathy makes it impossible to gauge an accurate potential outcome.
The scariest part of the possible situation that the election is contested is that there is no safeguard to protect against tyranny. We usually take this transfer of power for granted. Since the transition between the Washington and Adams administration, there has never been a doubt in anyone's mind that the person who wins the election will be peacefully sworn in on January 20th. This is especially relevant to what we learned in class this week as what the constitution says or doesn't say is crucial to determining what will happen in this election. The constitution relies greatly on good faith and has considerable ambiguity, something that Trump has taken great advantage of. Donald Trump may win or lose, but he will never concede. To say that this is unprecedented is an understatement. Interestingly, Trump doesn't have the power of an authoritarian, the mouth but not the guns. He can threaten to “lock her up,” but in the end, he doesn't have the power to take definitive action, indicating that the founders were, in fact, successful in limiting the power of the executive. Unfortunately, there are plenty of nuances in the constitution that would make it possible for the president to screw American democracy. He did it in 2016, even when he wasn't the president. The first step is to ensure that he has the majority on the supreme court. Next is voter suppression; Trump is less likely to win if turnout is high at the polls. Through strict signature and voter ID laws and strategically closing ballot boxes and polling locations, they disenfranchise millions of minorities. Trump strategy is simple: discredit voting by mail, encourage strong supporters to turn out at the polls (this is also more realistic for his supporters as many rural areas have lower COVID rates), defund the post office, contest the votes on election night, take the matter to the supreme court (where he will have the majority), and no matter what happens to stand by the fact that the election was rigged. Our institutions do not have the means to defend against this reality, and I fear for what is to come. The best thing we can do is to vote and make sure everyone we know votes.
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